The world's leading consensus currency forecaster.
Since 1986, FX4casts has provided continuous and consistent consensus currency forecasts. Central bankers, treasurers, institutional investors, academics and economists use FX4casts for managing currency risk and budget planning.
Time & Reliable
Now that extreme volatility is the new normal, the 1-24 month consensus expectations for 30 major currencies are published monthly and updated twice a month. This makes FX4casts more timely and pertinent when compared with publications having only monthly forecasts.
Direction of Risk
95% confidence intervals for 30 major currencies allow financial officers to relate the risk and extent associated with the consensus forecasts to the risk tolerance of individual users. In this example, the risk for the pound is skewed on the upside.
Base Currency Versatility
Each monthly issue provides consensus forecasts in terms of the dollar, euro and yen. Using Multibase™, financial officers may request any of the consensus forecasts in terms of 30 domestic currencies.
Consensus forecasts for 30 major and 40 minor currencies; interest rate forecasts for 30 countries; growth, inflation and current account forecasts for 45 countries. Long-term forecasts (1 to 5 years) are provided for the major currencies.
FX4casts offers a benchmark consensus forecast against which individual forecasts can be evaluated. Also, FX4casts improves the accuracy of its consensus forecasts by using a geometric mean rather than an arithmetic mean. A geometric mean retains all of the forecasts and exponentially reduces the value of the extremes.
In Survey Data on Exchange Rate Expectations, Professors Jeffrey Frankel, Harvard, and Menzie Chinn, Univ. of California, evaluated FX4casts consensus forecasts for 25 currencies for 10 years. The summary says, “We find an ability in FX4casts survey data to predict future movements in the exchange rates, and in the right direction!”
Benefits of a Consensus
FX4casts consensus expectations cut through the distribution of individual forecasts to provide a standard of reliability unmatched anywhere. Forecasts for 30 major currencies are based on input from currency strategists in 50 authoritative organizations.
The monthly publication is emailed in PDF along with data files in excel. Also, there is a comprehensive page for each of the major countries containing a snapshot of the forecasts for currencies, interest rates and economic variables.